Friday, August 15, 2014

Boston Scientific


  • Initiating with a HOLD and a $13.25 price target. Boston Scientific develops, manufactures & markets medical devices for various medical specialities. Boston Scientific has advanced the practice of less-invasive medicine by providing medical professionals with alternatives to surgery & other risky procedures that have high a risk. We’d like to remind investors that the core of every business is very important and we feel that investors have forgotten all too quickly about BSXs weak track record. While the stock is up 130% since Jan. 1 2013 and trades at a premium – even though BSX has multiple exciting products in its pipeline, and the cardio + rhythm management industry is stabilizing – BSX will have to be firing on all cylinders going forward to justify the current valuation. We believe the stock is fairly valued relative to its opportunities.
  • Full valuation:

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Bull Run to go on 'till 2012

We believe that the bull market rally will continue very strongly into 2011, possibly 2012 and a slight chance for 2013 too. We are warning everyone before-hand, not to short this market, and we would not be surprised if the market overextends to S&P 1600-1900 by the end of the rally.

When I studied technical analysis, a common scenario that occurs very frequently is that whenever a cyclical bear market lasts longer 1/2 of the original secular bull market, than the markets switch roles (i.e the bear market is now secular, and the bull market is cyclical). Obviously the bear market length would have to cross the original bull market to really switch roles, but after you cross the 1/2 ratio, the other 1/2 cross tends to be VERY quick. (See Nasdaq rise from 2500 to 5000 in a couple of years).

For the recent 'bear market' from late 2007 to early 2009, it has lasted about 18 months in length and will likely continue.
Since the bull market has lasted a good 18 months, it seems like the bull market will take a dominant position once again (at least for now). We are looking for atleast 36-72 months of bull market price action since the March 2009 bottom taking us into 2011-2013 before we see a sizaeable retracement and where funds should be in bonds and not equities.
Why do we believe the bull market is not done?
Well we either need
1) a 33% 'time-length' of the 2000-2010 bear market taking us to 2012 before a top
2) the mar2009 bull market has passed the golden 1/2 ratio (it passed it in january 2010!)
3) Stick with probability and time cycles.. It does not make sense that the market should fall in 2011!

These are rough targets.
2011 S&P TARGET: 1300
2012 S&P TARGET: 1400
2013 S&P TARGET (TOP): 1500-1700 (It depends on how overextended we get!)
Most of my analogy used was studied from various technical analysis cycle books.

Stick with Cramer.

See technical analysis chart here:$SPX&p=M&st=1975-01-01&en=(today)&id=p56923781625&a=218415017&listNum=1