Monday, August 17, 2009

Market Conversation for August 17th, 2009

SPX FUTURES UPDATE
(see chart)





Natural gas update
Short-Term Trend (1-2 days): Bearish.. (We are still in a downwards channel. Even though we only need to rally about 2% in-order for NG to break the channel.. ''technically'' we are still in a downtrend (see blue lines with the chart). I have to trust the charts, we could 'technically' continue lower.
However, as soon as this channel breaks to the upside.
Medium-Term Trend (weekly): Neutral
Long-Term Trend (monthly): Bearish
Chart will explain the downmove I saw.. and my targets.
Since the H&S target was met.. I expect Natural Gas to break it's downtrend channel (see chart).

It is important, and fundamental to note, that if U.S equities were to sell off, Natural Gas could continue to face serious downwards pressure. Unforuntately, we jumped 3.62 (14.92%) on the VIX today (very bad), so ANYTHING is possible. My stops are more loose, because of this increased volatiltiy. If the S&P is going to sub-900, it will take N.Gas down with it.. Even though the charts, are showing a pullback should occur, watch the SPY/DJIA closely, because I do not want to hear ''why is natural gas falling? well look at the dow, it's down ~200 points"..