Picture of the Day
We broke $3 and could not rally above it... This could be bearish going into this week if we do not rally above $3.
PM Update:
I feel it is important to tell everyone there is a lot of uncertainty in this market IMO. A play on the ^VIX (:VXX) would be good IMO.
Markets runs in cycles.. From September 15th, 2008 (Lehman Brothers collapse) to March 6th, 2009 was 6 months. If you add 6 monhts more it takes us to early september. I would not touch COMMODITIES/STOCKS until late september.
SPX futures.. [It's interesting to note I have not updated this chart since July.. I have never adjusted my trendlines] It is really accurate and I suggest you do not invest until after September when we have a clearer market direction... ]
Without getting into cycle theory [a very good read if you have the time].. Weird things happens at larger cycles [also known as seasonality investing to some..]..
Example: It is known that historically the last 2 years of a presidency is most bullish [because that president wants people to feel good so they vote for him again].. This is the type of 'cycles' I am talking about.
Another example of a longer-term cycle is the Kondratieff Wave.. Kondratiev waves—also called Supercycles, surges, long waves or K-waves—are described as regular, sinusoidal-like cycles in the modern (capitalist) world economy. Averaging fifty and ranging from approximately forty to sixty years in length, the cycles consist of alternating periods between high sectoral growth and periods of relatively slow growth [read more here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave]
Example of a larger cycle.
Chart [natural gas] 60min:
I am waiting for a confirmation of a break of this wedge to put back my longs.
[Even though we broke $3, we are still sitting on support of the wedge, so 'technically' $3 was not THAT significant.. considering the bottom of the wedge lies at around 2.975..]
Support/Resistance for october contracts
$3.72-3.776 Resistance
$3.482-3.524 Resistance
$3.15 Resistance (ng needs to break $3.10 & $3.15 for any sustainable rally to occur).
$3.10 Resistance (see above)
$3.00 Resistance
$2.90 Resistance
$2.75 Support
$2.70 Support (tested once on august contracts on 27th.. will it hold on the oct contracts?)
$2.64 Support
$2.50 Support
Poll [was released on August 24th]
61% of participants are bullish
25% of participants are bearish
Bottom Line:
There is a lot of uncertainty about to occur in the markets.
If you are planning to invest in natural gas please wait until a clear confrimation of the bullish wedge break.. in-order to not get wipsawed. If you are planning to invest in equities. I would wait until September ends IMO. No one ever went broke being flat.
E-mail me at zeeshan_maq@hotmail.com if you have any questions.
Good luck guys.
