Updated Natural Gas Chart:
My targets are shown with the black rectangle.
However, the BEARS still have this. Technically this could be a retracement, I do not know. We need to break 3.15 for the real confirmation. Not only that but if U.S equities start to fall in september.. that could be negative for natural gas.. You have to keep the other markets in mind too.
Updated Support/Resistance to look out for the next 4 trading days.
$3.72-3.776 Resistance
$3.482-3.524 Resistance
$3.15 Resistance
$2.90 Support
$2.75 Support
$2.70 Support
$2.64 Support
$2.50 Support
$2.20 Support
$2.00 Support
Summary:
Natural gas futures rebounded from a seven-year low on speculation fuel demand will strengthen as the world economy emerges from the worst recession since the 1930s.
Futures gained as the heads of the U.S. and European central banks said the recession is ending. A recovery would help increase factory demand for gas, which accounts for about 29 percent of U.S. consumption. Natural gas for September delivery rose 11.9 cents, or 4.2 percent, to settle at $2.923 per million British thermal units at 2:59 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touching $2.726, the lowest since Aug. 8, 2002. Gas Futures declined 24 percent from Aug. 7 through Aug. 21, the biggest two-week drop since July 2008.
The world economy is pulling out of recession, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said at an annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Crude oil October delivery rose 48 cents or, 0.7 percent, to $74.37 a barrel on the New York exchange.
Ratio With Oil
“Positive economic news is going to help natural gas,” said Chris Jarvis, president of Caprock Risk Management LLC in Hampton Falls, New Hampshire. “This move today has more to do with the oil-to-gas ratio being so out of whack because from a technical and structural level it’s way oversold.” The price ratio of natural gas to crude oil was near the widest since gas futures began trading on the exchange in 1990, reaching 25.8-to-1 today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The average over the past year is about 12.8 to 1. The ratio reached its widest on Aug. 21 at 26.35-to-1. Gas prices have declined 48 percent since the end of December as industrial demand fell because of the recession and output of the fuel from new onshore fields in the U.S. led to a glut. The price for crude futures surged 67 percent in the same period. Prices for the industrial and power-plant fuel will probably remain under pressure with stockpiles above 3 trillion cubic feet and no imminent threat of supply disruption from tropical storms or hurricanes, Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president for energy at MF Global Ltd. in New York, said in a note to clients. Gas Output “The larger problem may be the production that becomes shut because storage and pipeline facilities can hold no more,” he said. “The surplus could be severely tested” with an increase in demand. There were 695 natural-gas rigs working in the U.S. last week, down 57 percent from a peak of 1,606 in September 2008, based on data published by Baker Hughes Inc. U.S. gas inventories gained 52 billion cubic feet to 3.204 trillion in the week ended Aug. 14, the Energy Department reported on Aug. 20. Stockpiles were 19 percent higher than the five-year average for the week. Should weekly storage increases match the five-year average between now and the end of October, inventories would reach about 3.88 trillion cubic feet, department data show. The current high to start the winter in the U.S. is 3.545 trillion cubic feet reached on Nov. 2, 2007. Spot prices for the heating and industrial fuel have tumbled as stockpiles mounted, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
CFTC regulations
Exchange-traded funds have drawn increase scrutiny from the CFTC amid concern that the funds are distorting commodity prices.
Oversupply Issues
U.S. storage depots have been bloated for months with large amounts of unused natural gas because major industrial customers have cut back severely on energy use during the recession.
‘‘It’s going to be consumption that’s going to cause things to turn around...How far they go up is going to be a function of how much consumption there is,’’ said Soucy.
‘‘And so for that you’re going to have to look at what the weather’s going to be like this winter, how quickly is the economy going to pick up so that we see more industrial commercial use for the gas that’s fallen off since the recession.’’
Poll
As of monday, 51% of people are bullish.. 39% of people are bearish
Futures Price:
As of 7:37 PM Monday, we are up 0.58% at 2.940$.
Hurricanes:
The 2009 hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Bill had very little positive effects on NG prices.
Charts:
1995-1998 charts
Shows S/R
1998-2000 charts
Shows S/R
2000-2002 charts
Shows S/R
Bearish Case (short-term view of natural gas):
The short-term charts are indeed bearish.. The downside targets for this triangle breakdown is 2.45 (pessimistic) and 2.75 (optimistic) [EDIT: MY optimistic target for longs have been hit.. the pessimistic target could 'technically' still occur'].
Bearish Chart 1 (240min)
Bearish Charts
It really depends on how you look at things. See my notes on this chart about no bottoming candlesticks being shown.. That's what we need this week for a clear, confirmed bottom).
Bullish Case (eventually it will be bullish.. its just a matter of how long we stay bearish.. i'm not discounting $sub 2.50)
This chart below, shows 11 different times where we`ve hit the bottom black trendline. On august 21st we finnaly hit it again after many months. If it holds for good, natural gas will go to 10$ in the next 2 years. If we can break the $3.20 level.. bulls can have this.
BOTTOM LINE:
Buy when people are scared.. Remeber, natural Gas is not going to zero.
Natural Gas has been in a downtrend for approximately 52 weeks.
I believe natural gas is bottoming, good luck trying to catch the bottom without getting wipsawed. .
We are at long-term support levels at $2.70. If that does not hold next week, watch out below.
