I am working on a cycle theory for the $SPX to decide where the faith of the market lies.
[the work is still not done.. it may come sometime this month].
The uncertainty is almost finished.. Most U.S equity markets bottom during Aug/Sept/Oct.
1-year cycles
$SPX
August 1987 LOW
August 1988 Low
October 1989 Low
October 1990 Low
November 1991 Low
[etc...]
October 2005 Low
October 2006 High
October 2007 Major High
October 2008 Low
September 2009 Low [bottom] ??????
Natural Gas Update:
Even with that big bounce on Friday, we are still trading in a downtrend. All I can say is that we've made a short-term bottom. Will it hold in the future?
On august 21st, I annouced $2.45 will likely be the bottom.
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEOfGIFlGGK3wAmxuDJLzLNASRleZAKIB1ZGBjPFGZ6ALr8B_rBObhWzodh0WriHMOqrHsw0FQksQyTi5hoSFlRqMML54fIXRNzIeOBla1eBqORaYEFBcTwRH2MpAZVqsMWAj_ZpHkQj8k/s1600-h/Natural+gas+long+term+chart.png
I also said in this post that $2.45 is my pessimistic target
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSAh-h1rL1-YfW3kUCaXvDEN0X0vuKiT27hEjY05ECej5DcEaCz0-JxwNNiGymrFcOVeNY-KJZbwBDbG8ZosttQqqVtuTKM_KxDBij8F6dK5qlJwegl05yNab7DlDbVwiYW-kvSJuNIugV/s1600-h/Natural+Gas+4+hours+bearish+targets+1.png
We bottomed at 2.409 at 6:00AM on September,4th [this is a short-term bottom].. Like my most recent chart shows [below], we are not out of the woods yet.
[In the chart, I meant we will not break $2.50 and hold sub $2.50 for long WITHOUT a test of $2.70 (which we got on Friday)]. Now we might go re-test $2.50 and break it completely (and hold $sub 2.50 or break the downtrend and likely go to $3.30)
Poll
Poll [was released on August 24th]
54% of participants are bullish (-6% change from August 31st)
35% of participants are bearish (+10% change from August 31st)
Natural Gas October Futures fell -10.06% this week and closed at 2.728 for the weekend
Numbers to look out for this week. [support/resistance]
Note these numbers are taken from charts from 1990-2002.
See my august posts for the charts.
[everytime one number gets broken look for the number above/below to be the next target].
$3.15 Resistance
$2.90 Resistance
$2.75 Support
$2.70 Support
$2.64 Support
Also look for a break of that downtrend for a confirmation of a bullish trend.. If that happens.. we're going much higher = )
Good luck.
zee
