Thursday, November 19, 2009

Cycle Theory.. Nov 16th The Top until Dec 1st.

Cycle theory is confirming a top in the markets on Nov 16th, 2009.

I have sold all my long positions except those that have been outperforming the market (DOW + 22.60%, AMD +62% & MRK +12.74% since Nov 02.).

I also added 2200 shares of SDS @$35.80 only because the market theoretically has put in the top for the next 11 trading days. The market should embark on a 2-5% correction which I would like to catch half of thus my SDS has a limit order of $37.00. The next cycle should put in the bottom by December 1st. The trade now is to short on Nov 18th, and cover all positions by Decemeber 1st. Going long now is unfavourable. I would be adding shorts every time we rip higher. I have a limit order of 1000 shares short of SPY OTM if we reach 110.59 again. If we suddenly reach the 1130 level I would get out of all shorts because the market is likely going to top instead of bottoming. This phenomenon of the market topping when it shoud be bottoming is called an inversion, and this is the main reason why I am not going aggresively short as I am scared this might happen. December 1st is a high probability cycle date, unlike Nov 16-17th, and on Dec 1ST I will be adding huge directional positions.. until then Im playing it safe. On all remaining longs, I will be writing covered calls. GL

Here is my current portfolio : Long 16.36%:: Short 25.13% :: Cash 57.78%

Symbol Position Price Paid Shares
SDS Short $ 35.75 2200
DOW Long Stock $ 23.54 755
AMD Long Stock $ 4.51 1579.5
MRK Long Stock $ 31.17 250
SSS.V Long Stock $ 0.12 10012
SNV Long Stock $ 2.03 5700
CASH
$ 190,206.44
CIT Long Stock $ 0.28 1000

Statistics:
Initial Capital on Nov 2nd $ 209,564.52
Capital Nov 18 $ 329,183.96
ROI
57.08%


Love, Adios and Happy Trading