S&P 1000 or S&P 1200.. Which one will we hit first?

Tuesday, January 26th update :
Question of the week: S&P 1000 or S&P 1200.. Which one will we hit first? Leave an interesting comment in the section below.

I'm pretty sure this is a continuously updated chart of February Natural Gas Contracts. As I mentioned before the high $5 area will provide resistance. Short.

Gold seems to be rebounding higher. Be cautious going long .. i'd wait this one out.

Natural gas is still a short but only when it hits above the 80 range (i.e short at 5.85)

The $CPCE is confirming a bottom in the DJIA,S&P & NASDAQ in the next couple of days (stops at 1070). You want to be long for the first 2 weeks of February as the majority starts to turn bearish. You've seen the strength of the rally from March, you have to assume that will keep on happening. I'm a buyer above 1070. Why? 1070 is the last support until 1030, if 1070 breaks, 1030-1050 will be tested fairly fast. So be long equities with stops at 1070 on the s&p. If 1070 breaks and then rallies above it [known as a fakeout], buy again!!Post a comment if you are confused or if you have some other idea of what will happen.

I don't like to go too deep into the theory part as it is long and boring but the real s&p pivot point is 1020 http://social.stocktock.com/photo/cycles-1?context=user set in September of 2009. If the s&p breaks 1020 I will charge my credit card and load up on puts. Of course I do not expect this event to happen.

If you go back a couple years on the put/call ratio, you will see that actually most bottoms are put in with a ratio of 0.80 and above
Click on the image to enlarge it.

You might be skeptical about the $CPCE so I posted what previous results of using it gave you. It works actually quite wonderfully. + explanation of the $CPCE.

To quickly recap, the CBOE publishes three put to call ratios. In my preferred charting site, StockCharts.com, these are known as:
$CPCE – the ticker for the equity put to call ratio
$CPCI – the ticker for the index put to call ticker
$CPC – the ticker for the total equity + index data
For reasons I have discussed in the past, I prefer the CPCE ratio and use this as a contrarian signal.

The chart above was posted on StockTock.Com on October 31st, 2009 when the S&P was trading in the low 1000s. I advised everyone to go long: http://social.stocktock.com/photo/very-bullish-chart-for-2009?context=user
I feel that by February 1st, 2010, (a large cycle date which my friend Fritz at StockTock.com also believes where the market will make a short-term bottom) this is the time to go long. (we are looking to go long Telecoms for the yield, XOM if $66-68 holds, but NOT the financials). We are playing it safe and high-probability.

Sunday, January 24th

Hi guys, updates on commodities will be every Friday from now on. I'd like to note that although I am not the smartest trader, I would like to supply free weekly natural gas TA charts & GOLD charts that are continuous in nature. Natural Gas Futures contracts are rolled over every month so if you are tracking $NATGAS or UNG or HNU.TO you are likely not reading the real price of NYMEX Electronic Traded Natural Gas over a 1-year time frame. That's why this site could be essential to your trades. You have to remember, I try to avoid the noice to capture high-probability trades so don't expect daily updates. The next update will be on Janaury 29th.

Recap Of The Week:
If you turned on the T.V this week you'll see fast money anchors crying because the DJIA has just been hit pretty hard. The week started off with negative news with Republican Scott Brown winning a bitter Senate race in Massachusetts on Tuesday, dealing a sharp blow to President Barack Obama's legislative agenda and casting doubt on the fate of his sweeping healthcare overhaul.

Then you had Obama proposing tough regulations, Thursday that aim to limit the size and risk allowances at financial institutions. Why did mr. O do this? Obama appears to be stepping up his defence of Main Street after the Democrats' devastating loss Tuesday in the Massachusetts Senate race.

If I've learned something being a HFT is that Wall Street participants are actors. In-front of the camera they argue with emotion. I can't believe the anchors are suggesting to buy puts today.. at 10,172 on the DJIA.. Hello? Where were you guys 500 pts ago? Do not believe the hype.. We will sell off a bit more.. than magically we will rally up to 1200. Why do I think this? See my chart (posted on Nov 27th over here http://social.stocktock.com/photo/future-cycles?context=user for justification)
Enough of me talking though, how has Natural Gas & Gold faired out in responce to all of this?


Well first let me introduce the supply/resistance levels for the week

Disclaimer: All charts used are the electronic natural gas futures, not UNG, nor HNU.TO. How can you use these charts to trade Natty? If we are approaching resistance you'd want to sell UNG or buy HND.TO and vice-versa. How can you devise targets? If I say set a 2% stop in natural gas futures, then that would probably mean a 2% stop in UNG and 4% stop in HNU.TO

Charts of the Week:

Please click the image to view the longer-term TA perspective of Natural Gas.

Medium-Term Trend: bearish (2-4 weeks) (we are approaching key resistance levels in the 5.95-6.05 area.. ) you guys should really be shorting with stops at 6.10-6.15. If 6.10 breaks you bail.. otherwise take advantage of the next-downmove

Please click the image to view the medium-term TA perspective of Natural Gas.

Short-Term Trend: Bullish (next 3-5 trading days).. This upwave might overextend in the high $5 range but it should quickly pullback.
Please click the image to view the short-term TA perspective of Natural Gas.

NEW GOLD CHARTS!
Gold has broken it's uptrend and has a target for $1020 to be reached in late February (H&S). If Gold does not break $1060, this event will not happen.

If 1060 breaks, watch out because more selling pressure will come. All the information you need is on the chart itself!! Check it out.