Thursdays Morning Update : 7:25 AM
Natural Gas Futures:
Natural gas is up as expected. We will be unloading our natural gas contract position (+1.89%) at the open and will still hold HNU.TO @ 10.15 as we are bullish on natural gas (very short-term). We will KEEP our stops at 10.15 for HNU.TO.
S&P Futures:
The S&P is flat.. Me and my friend believe that if the market does not crash soon, then probability wise the only other option is it to stay -3%/+3% until April-May of 2010. Shy away from the equities. It's hard too trade as the sell-off is finished, but there is no new fundamental news which seems to be pushing up the markets which means volatility will stay controlled. That's why trade Natural Gas.. =)
5.25 held.. if your short, watch out for a squeeze.
if your long at 5.25.
Keep TIGHT STOPS.
volatility will expand any day/week now.. I expect a +10% move in D or U to happen soon, so keep them stops tight!
*Wednesdy Morning Update: 7:15 AM
It looks like the low of 5.27 is holding. I'm going long NG if it hits 5.28 with a 1% stop. Watch the graph below. If 5.25 breaks, I'm out of all longs.
*Tuesday Afternoon 3:09 PM Update:
I got stopped out at 5.40 (-1.67%loss) but it was a small position.
I am placing fairly large buy orders on NATURAL GAS at
5.25--stops at 5.10
5.15-- stops at 5.10
5.00-- stops at 4.85
If 5.25 does not hold, natural gas could potentially become very bearish.
However we have one more support level at 4.90. THAT IS WHY I'M A BUYER. I want to buy in-front of support because there is a high probability it will bounce at both $4.90 and $5.25!
If $4.90 breaks natural gas will go into free-fall.
If $5.25 holds, Natural gas should go back up and re-visit $6!!
trade of the week: Go long on a breakout above $5.25, and go short on a breakout below $4.90
*Monday Night, Feb 8th Quick Update:
*Monday Morning, February 8th Quick update:
*Monday Night, Feb 8th Quick Update:
We got stopped out at 5.55 for our natural gas contracts and we we took a small position EOD as we felt this move was overdone. Notice I said a small position. I am looking to take very large positions when we dip down to some serious resistance at either $4.90 or $5.10-$5.25ish.
This is a day-trade and we will unload it as soon as it is +3% or down 3%. (That's a 1.25% move in natural gas since it is 2x leveraged). I believe in many small hits with some strikes (drawdowns) gets us to win down the road in the 9th.
Stops at 5.40.
If 5.40 breaks overnight, we sell at the open. No buts, no ifs.
*Monday Morning, February 8th Quick update:
If your already long I would keep stops very tight. You want to see $NATGAS breakout to 5.70+ to continue holding a position. Loomk how small the bollinger bands are. Low volatility is usually followed by high volatility. The question is how to know what position to take? Watch the BBs for indications.
I personally will not be taking any new positions, rather I am slowly unloading longs at key resistance areas such as : 5.60, 5.80 & 6.00. I am waiting until the key $5.90-$6.00 area to go short and key $5.15-5.35 support levels to go long.
You may be asking yourself: Why should I unload longs if the trend is clearly up? (see $natgas charts from friday's report if you haven't seen it yet). Notice the chart is about 2 weeks old; however resistance will stay the same guys.
Huge resistance up ahead!! Why would you be long when negative downward pressure will appear?
