Hey, welcome to the report where I present the most significant news of the week, and developments in natural gas. Well Friday ended the session huge on the jobs report.
US Feb Nonfarm Payrolls -36K; Jobless Rate 9.7%
The jobs report should help reinforce the Federal Reserve's view that short- term interest rates must remain at a record low for several months at least. Fed Chairman Ben Bernake last week said bad weather was likely to have impacted the February jobs report, and warned against reading too much into it.
The storms of Feb. 4-7 and Feb. 9-11 likely prevented a significant number of Americans from being counted on payroll during the key period that includes the 12th, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics carries out the survey. The blizzards that hit the East Coast, a densely populated work area where transportation was badly disruputed by the snow, may also have caused a delay in new hiring.
Analysts expect the negative impact the weather had on the jobs market in February to be reversed by a positive impact on March employment growth.
$JUST FOR FUN
The RUSSELL 2000 INDEX (^RUT) closed at 666 today, the weekend of the 1-year anniversary of the biggest bottom of the past 2 decades, where the S&P bottomed at 666 on March 9th, 2009.
Coincidence? I think not.
Wall Street is definetely sending traders a message. What message though?
Got an idea ? Post a comment below.
If You don't believe me, check the S&P closing date on march 9th 2009 and check the russell 2000 index today.. 1 year exactly.. scary..
TECHNICALS
I have went long UNG and sold calls against it.. trying to arb it.. break-even point is about $7.90 after selling the calls. I hope most of you went long today or are planning too.. this was the huge support I've been mentioning for the past month.. the $4.50 area.. Go long & sell the calls close to the strike price.. Very High Probability of a trade. Note.. If $4.50 breaks you could see natural gas go down to the $3.65 area so realize that if $4.50 does not hold and natural gas is falling 5-10% you should consider getting out of your position
COT REPORT for natural gas holdings
If you don't understand the report, I highly recommend reading my last blog post underneath this, it explains it. Basically, swap dealers report their natural gas holdings on Tuesday and I get the data on Friday. You want to mimic swap dealers (market makers!!).
There is no significant development in smart money or managed money (mutual fund money=dumb money).
The ratio of long exposure to short exposure is the same for Managed Money as last week
The Ratio of Swap Dealers Long exposure over short exposure is also the same as last week.
This makes me believe two things
1) A squeeze is coming to surprise the swap dealers and reward managed money
2) More bearishness to come
I am leaning on 1) since $4.50 is long term support.
S&P
I know this chart is 1 day old, however just imagine the one big candlestick we got on Friday's market action.. as long as we don't rally above the 1150 area, I would still be short. This rally is on low-volume that is why it will fade away sooner or later. March 9th is my turn date, derived from taking the previous bottom (Feb 8th) and adding 21 trading days. Historically and probability rise, no rallies last longer than 21 days.
Short-Term Trend: Bullish
Long-Term Trend: Bullish
However, the bull's excitement has to come to a stop... Seller of 118,119,120,121 SPY CALLS.
