Friday's Report #7 -- Let's look at the long-term trend.

1a. This report is suppose to be used for the month of March/April 2010.
1b. The blog's layout changed. We wanted a more clean cut look. We hope you like it.

2. Secondly, our analysis has shifted away from the counter-trend trading.

When I went long at $4.50, I was scalping for a quick bounce and got out as soon as possible on a small loss. Ideally, I should have waited 1 week to see if the support level held and then piled in if it did (this prevents getting stopped out and losing money but it also means you miss 10-20% of the move..).

From now on, I will not talk too much about counter-trend trades as they are risky. Also I suggest everyone to switch out of HNU.TO/HND.TO and switch into UNG/short UNG. Not only is the stock optionable (edit-HNU.TO/HND.TO is also optionable-), but it is easily shorted, more liquid, and less volatile.
My strategies will focus more on getting good entry positions with the main trend.
3. Lastly, our charts sizes have been optimized to fit everyone's display. Past posts will not be adjusted. You can always click on past pictures to enlarge them.
4. Have a question? Have feedback to say? Something on your mind? Leave a comment.

Daily Candlestick View of Natural Gas:
Next Support Level: $3.93-4.00 & $3.60-$3.65 [Counter-Trend Trading-never jump in-front of a falling knife.. wait for support to hold, then pile in]
Resistance Levels (Optimal Short Entries): $4.45-4.50 [w/stops]



Weekly Candlestick View of Natural Gas:
ROC: Bearish
ADX: Bearish trend has just started.
MACD: Sell Signal



Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart: (incase anyone is interested)
The target is 11,900-12,000 if 10700 holds.
Long-Term: Buy
Good Entry Point: 1150 with stops below.

Here is a 24/7 updated natural gas chart for you to follow

COT'#s

To see this week's natural gas holdings go to : http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/nat_gas_sf.htm

If you need understanding of how to use the COT ,please refer back to my march reports or do a google search.

As of March 16th, 2010, Swap Dealers (smart money) hold 21% of all april contracts as opposed to 0.8% of all NYMEX APRIL NG short contracts. Smart money is positioned bullish until expiration.  In addition managed money (dumb money) added short contracts and own 20% more short contracts then long contracts. It's pretty obvious they will be some sort of short covering rally at least to the $4.20-$4.35 range IMO. However understand that these numbers can only be used for the short-term as natural gas april contracts expire on march 26th, 2010 and that UNG/HNU.TO have likely already rolled over to may contracts...