US Adds 162K Jobs, But Jobless Rate Steady At 9.7%
Census additions were 48,000 and the weather impacts is expected to be about 100,000, thus the net organic add was just barely positive. Keep in mind the birth-death in March was +81,000 (vs. 97,000 in February) for the adjusted metric, so one wonders how much of this gain was purely adjusted on paper. If one excludes birth-death we get -67,000 [Tyler Durden].
The jobs report shouldn't change the Fed's view that short-term interest rates must remain at a record low for several months at least. Fed officials project the unemployment rate will fall only to 8.3% at the end of 2011 from about 9.6% in the final quarter of this year.
In a sign the labor market remains weak, a broader measure of unemployment continued to edge up. The so-called underemployment rate--which includes everyone in the official rate plus those who are neither working nor looking for work, but say they want a job and have looked for work recently--rose to 16.9% in March from 16.8% the previous month. In January, the underemployment rate stood at 16.5%.
Daily Chart of Natural Gas:
TRIX (Lagging Indicator): Sell Signal Generated Jan 2010.
MACD: Buy Signal Generated on APRIL. 1st
ADX: The bearish trend is overextended and poised for a reversal.
This week surprised many. The EOW of spike in natural gas saved the $4 support level which could mean further bullishness in the next couple of trading days.
Short-Term Trend: The short-term trend will remain bullish as long as 4.00 holds. Whenever natural gas reverses it's trend, volatility is quick and you see huge jumps. Take advantage by selling $8 UNG covered calls if your long. The short-term target is $4.45 for natural gas (previous support).
Long-Term Trend: Target is $3.20 for natural gas by end of summer (see Report #7 for valuation)
COT #s
I recommend looking at this website: http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/nat_gas_sf.htm
Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC.
Henry Hub ICE Futures Numbers (Holding Spot Price Contracts)
Swap Dealers have reduced their short positions by 7%. This is the largest short covering I have ever seen them do (be aware that I've only been watching COT numbers for about 1 month now). They are still very short, but a short covering likely means there are scared to be too heavily biased into one position. TheMACD buy signal generated just 2 days ago and the overextendedness (is this a word?) in the ADX (Go to investopedia.com and type in ADX if you don't understand what this is! I really recommend it. It's a great indicator to know!).
Delivery COT numbers - NYMEX
These contracts are meant to be held for the entire month. Swap dealers (smart money) is holding a significant amount of long contracts while dumb money is holding a significant amount of short contracts.
See this link http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/nat_gas_sf.htm and judge accordingly.
Have a good easter weekend, and good trading week !!
This is just a fun motivational video I found on YouTube. Please let me know what you think of it! It's very beautiful!
