WITH THE 'RIGHT' NGI REPORT, NG COULD SHOOT UP 8-12%
nothing is guaranteed.. but I'd like to point out a possibility
Summary:
This is what print I'd love to see tomorrow:
I will not update in the AM unless I see something irregular happen.
Good luck
Is this a true bottom? This is the million dollar question.
I believe we'll have 1 of 2 scenarios unfold in the next couple of weeks.
1) We retrace back to 3.4-3.5ish or 3.9 and we do not hold this level, and we go to new lows in natural gas.. (sub$3) to finnaly bottom out in mid/late september (this is a possibility, as unrealistic as it seems). Basically we are in a trading range.
2) We go on to touch $2.70 in the next 2 weeks.
The real truth is that I won't know we are in a bull market for NG, until it holds $4 for a month. When that happens, you know natural gas is going to be bullish but you'll also miss about 33% (or 66% if you are playing HNU) of the move.
Summary (2)
We broke out of the descending wedge (see chart below) on a doji, making me believe the breakout can be false. At this point of time, we need confirmation on the breakout (usually noted by a very stong up-day).. I need to see tomorrow's NGI report. Even then, we could 're-test 3.10' because NG loves to print consecutive doji candles before jumping up 5-8%.
Interistingly, we got the first hurricane of the 2009 ATLANTIC season and was no threat to oil and gas installations in the Gulf of Mexico .It is important to look at because energy markets watch storms in the Gulf of Mexico closely because the region produces a quarter of U.S. oil and 15 percent of its natural gas.
Hurricane Bill
Powerful Hurricane Bill, a dangerous Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds
Sentiment:
Short-Term (1-4 trading days): Bearish
Medium-Term: upside potential 10-20% (5-10+ trading days): bearish.. but need bullish confirmation
Long-Term (monthly): Bearish
Chart:
I drew some targets.. which I will explain in my weekend post.
They are basically fibs & lines of resistance.
Position:
I sold my shorts of natural gas today. Bought a bit of HNU.TO
Questions, comments?
E-mail me at zeeshan_maq@hotmail.com
